Category Archives: Currency Wars

Fiat Currencies

Is crypto space a bubble? Outlook for 2018

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Many people see crypto space as a giant bubble. I would disagree, at least for now. I think we may be entering early bubble territory but won’t be quite there yet for another year or two. Here is my reasoning.

  • Cryptocurrencies have not passed the $1 trillion mark. Cryptocurrencies are a whole new asset class and asset class below $1 trillion is not massive. Just see real estate, stocks, bonds etc as a reference. Tens of trillions of dollars if not hundreds.
  • Cryptocurrencies are still not mass adopted. Very few people are acquainted with cryptocurrencies, even less own some, and even less hold a sizable amount. How many people can you think of that own more than $10,000 worth of crypto? I know only a couple.
  • Demand is increasing. Most people who are committed to crypto, commit even more. New people board the train every day. Main alt exchanges stopped registrations due to overload. Sentiment is positive. We need a really major event to evaporate enthusiasm.
  • Institutional money is underinvested. 2017 saw an influx of hedge funds into space but those are the 1% most opportunistic ones. Most of the big institutional money is on the sidelines as the financial instruments to allow you to hold bitcoin are not developed enough. We need ETF, instruments for hedging on BTC and the rest. BTC leads the way but it is a very early stage yet.
  • Very few people hold a big percentage of most of the cryptocurrencies. Their free float is very small. Thus the explosive growth. I don’t see this changing in the nearest future.
  • The fact that crypto cap is $750 billion, does not mean that $750 billion came into the sector. A lot of coins are just held by early adopters that got them for free or very few money and they never changed hands. So inflow is far less than that.
  • You cannot really short most of the currencies. It is only possible for BTC since we have the futures. So big guys that can manipulate price are not here yet.
  • Crypto withstood a lot of crisis. Death of crypto has been called many times. If you are following the sector since a few years, you would know that bulls’ conviction is quite sturdy.

Cryptocurrencies are here to stay and the innovation is just getting started in the field. Very few people probably have the vision how big that may get and what fields of life that may change. A very common comparison is between the internet and crypto currencies. I believe that every innovation dwarfs the previous one.

Not everything is rosy though. There are a few worrisome signs that i acknowledge. LTC founder sold his LTC holdings, Dogecoin (started as a joke) passed $1 billion cap and Ripple founder passed Zuckerberg in net worth shortly. I also see a lot of people with poor fundamental understanding of crypto who flock the sector to make a quick buck. Still, i haven’t heard the waiter talk crypto. These are early signs of a bubble, but as a said we might be 1-2 years away from topping.

We are in a massive bull run and bull runs don’t quit just like that. All time highs are a clear sign of an upward trend and there is nothing strange about that. And trends have the tendency to last. We haven’t broken any support levels yet, charts are off the roof. Why call a top and stay on the sideline? I would be the first to acknowledge when things turn bad but I just don’t see anything like that yet.

Crypto assets are not like anything else and every standard investment analysis seems weird. The only way to look at crypto is from a risk-reward point of view. You can lose what you invested but can make a few times over. Very favorable risk-reward.

I know most of the currencies are in beta, don’t have valid use cases yet or have many flaws and are being constantly stolen by hackers. Fundamentally this is as bad as it gets. But when we talk expectations phase, all it matters is how much more money are going to enter the sector and what is the investor sentiment. I think a lot of money are waiting to enter and we will see higher prices before we have a real hangover.

Happy investing/speculating/trading!

Gold and Silver

Silver is a screaming buy

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It is always difficult to assess if something is a buy or a sell. However, current market conditions and recent silver price make the task very easy for silver. I believe that this is one of the rarest opportunities to buy silver at such a discount. I also believe that price could go much higher from here for a short period of time – kind of the same or even bigger spike than that of 2009-2011 when silver price went up 5 times for 2 years. Let’s take a look what makes me think so.

As every asset, the price in a free market is set by demand and supply.


  • Silver is relatively small market. Just to give you an idea – every year are sold and bought around 1 bln Oz of physical silver which at current prices is around $15 bln per year. This is extremely small market compared to others. For example yearly silver market in dollar volume is equal to three days of oil demand dollar volume. So the market can go up or down with an astonishing pace. That’s why silver is known as gold on steroids.
  • Silver supply comes from three sources – mine supply being the biggest, scrap and government sales. For some time government sales are virtually zero so the sources of supply remain 2.
  • Scrap silver is when people sell back their jewelry for money or when silver is being extracted from electrical appliances for reuse. Scrap supply is going down for the last 2-3 years and in 2014 was 168 mln Oz which is about 17% from total supply. And it will probably remain this way or even go down as at current prices people don’t seem to see an incentive to sell back their jewelry or silverware.
  • A lot of silver is used for the production of electrical appliances. But in each appliance, very little silver is being used – something like a gram or two. So most of the silver that is being used in electrical appliances will never be retrieved from there as it is not worth the effort at current price levels. Every year tens of thousand of Oz’s are lost forever from the silver market, without a chance to be retrieved again.
  • Mine supply is  the biggest source of silver – +80% of total supply. To get out silver out of a mine is a very long and risky process. Sometimes decades can pass from starting to explore a property to the first ounce being sold from that property. Very few things can compare in terms of complexity to the decision to open up a mine. So mine supply is a very sticky source. They can withstand bad economic conditions for quite a long as closing a mine is much worse that being 2-3 years in the red. But when mines start closing due to bad economic conditions, silver supply from these mines is lost for years and years to come.  That’s what is happening now – not many mines have closed since price of silver tumbled from almost 50$ 3 years ago to 14.50$ now. But not for long – some mines are are starting to get out of business due to low silver price. Remember, that supply is not going to recover any time soon.
  • Every mine has an area with higher concentrations and lower concentrations of metals in the rock. In normal times you mine from both so that you average out concentrations. Many miners however, due to low silver price are forced to mine only the high grade concentrations currently just to be able to survive. That in the long run is very detrimental however. It is like choosing to lose your two legs in order to survive now. When higher concentrations run out and miners are left out with areas of poor metal grades, miners will need much higher prices to mine the lower grades – or they will go out of business.
  • A lot of silver is mined as a by product of other materials – zinc, lead, copper and gold. All the commodities are being hit very hard in recent years so zinc, lead, copper and gold miners suffer just like silver miners, this putting further pressure on supply. This year for example two of the largest zinc mines are about to close without being replaced.


  • Most of the silver is being used in industry – as i wrote before it has some astonishing characteristics which make silver invaluable in electronics, medicine and insulation. Industry takes up 60% of silver, jewelry – 20%, silverware – around 5% and the rest is investment demand in terms of coins and bars.
  • Industry is kind of steady consumer of silver. While some applications go down as silver in photography, others are on the rise – medicine, insulation and solar panels. Silverware and jewelry are also kind of steady. The only thing that fluctuates in big way on the demand side is the investment demand.
  • In contrast to stocks and other financial assets, silver demand goes through the roof when price goes down. Silver investment demand is set for a 29 year record this year. US mint is expected to sell around 45-50 mln 1Oz silver eagle coins this year. So 5% of the overall market goes in a single silver coin – i don’t know how that sounds to you but by all means that is huge number. Sales of maple leafs, philharmonics etc are also on the rise too. US mint is selling coins with two months delivery time as they just can’t make that many coins. If things don’t settle down, physical shortage is almost guaranteed next year.

But what about the price?

  • Everything is good so far but why price falls and does not soar? Valid question. Silver price is not set on the physical market but on the derivatives market. Every day, more silver is being traded than being produced in a year!!! So the pricing mechanism is not in the hands of miners and customers but in the hands of financial speculators. And in times of cheap money, resource is ample to manipulate price. However, when things reach a point when shortages of physical silver appear and you will be able to buy only silver derivatives, price will explode and wipe out unprepared speculators. No matter how long the rigging, the physical market is the king at the end of the game.
  • Official silver price is one thing but real price is something else. For example the price of silver now is listed as 14.5-15 dollars but 1 OZ american eagle coins sell at +30% premiums over market due to supply squeeze. So it is the kind of situation that you enter a shop with a sign “1 cent for a loaf of bread” but they have none left.
  • Silver miners sell silver at cost – Pan american silver, Coeur, First majestic etc all have all in sustaining costs around 15$ for Q2 2015 which is what the silver price is, so you can rarely have an opportunity to buy silver at cost.
  • Silver market sentiment is at multiple years lows which by itself is a very bullish sign. Remember what Buffet said – “Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy”.
  • Big investor names are aligning for a bull run in the  resource industry as Carl Icahn, Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller and Mrc Faber.


Investing in silver is not for the faint-hearted as it goes down or up in high magnitude in short periods of time. However, if you get on board in the right moment the returns are compared to nothing else. I think that it is just that kind of a moment now. Of course you should be thinking only physical silver and not paper derivatives over silver.

Gold and Silver Uncategorized

Why you should care about silver

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If you neglected silver as an asset or thought of it only in terms of silverware so far, think twice. Silver is one of the rarest and extremely valuable metals out there. It is also the single metal that has a dual nature – it is used heavily in industry but is also highly valued as an investment tool.

Quick facts for silver used in industry:

  • Silver is the best electric conductor of all times. That’s why it is used in pretty much every electrical appliance. Moreover, with the rise of the solar energy, silver is in high demand. Around 20 grams of silver are needed for a panel that produces 1kWh energy from the sun.
  • Silver is one of the best thermal insulators also. All the thermally insulating glasses have a coating that contains silver. Some high thermally performing clothes contain silver for insulation.
  • Silver has one of the best anti-bacterial properties. It makes bacteria cells fall apart literally. You may have heard that silver is used in water purification technology. The rich in the past started using silverware partly because of the anti-bacterial properties. Silver makes antibiotics much stronger.

Quick facts for silver as an investment/financial asset:

  • Silver has served as money for thousands of years due to its characteristics. Even american coins up to 1971 contained a fair amount of silver in them.  Any United States dime, quarter, half dollar or dollar that is dated 1964 or earlier is made of 90% silver.
  • Silver is used heavily for jewelry and all sorts of “schmuck”. Especially in the east – India, China, Bangladesh etc.
  • Silver is one of the best hedges (gold being its big brother) in times of turmoil, distress, inflation, wars etc. And it has been like that for centuries – over and over again. Who kept gold and silver during hard times, came out as a winner at the end.

Can you think of any other asset with such characteristics?

Gold and Silver Uncategorized

First Majestic CEO Slams CFTC Chairman on silver market rigging

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If you know how commodities are traded on the world markets, you will already know that what was meant to serve as a hedge mechanism for producers is now a platform to rig prices of underlying commodities by speculators. Physical markets and futures price discovery process have diverged a lot.

Futures markets were meant for the producers to sell future produce so that they hedge the price of future business. However, speculators have become the major crowd in those markets and logically the major factor in price setting. Some commodities’ world annual production is now traded in a singe day. In some record days for example (19.2.2013), 2.5 years of world production of silver is traded in a single day. So you can imagine speculators’ role in the markets is quite high. And that goes on like forever. The bad thing is that real producers should sell real products to real consumers for a price set by speculators that flip contracts all day long and never take or give delivery. This is quite different from stocks for example where everybody trades expectations and promises. Here we are talking real labor, knowhow and products – silver, crude oil, wheat, corn etc.

Silver market is one of the most rigged throughout the years as it is a relatively small market ($20 bln. worth of annual production). For my sweet surprise it seems that producers are fed up with this game and start at least publicly to condemn the whole thing. First Majestic Silver’s (one of the biggest silver producers) CEO slams Commodity futures trading  commission with the following letter:

first majestic silver

What the silver producers argue about is that the market has stopped serving the purpose of an honestly price discovery mechanism as the producers are not represented there. His discontent stems from the fact that large positions are opened (163 days worth of annual production) short despite the low prices and  those positions are from speculators and not real hedgers.

I personally hope that others will follow.

Currency Wars Fiat Currencies Uncategorized

New war in town – currency war

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Currency wars was something unheard of as a term in the mass media just 5 years ago. Now if you search through news paper , you will find that the most usages of the word war is related to currency.

Things are getting really serious recently as all parties are trying to outsmart the others and s most things in finance this is a zero sum game and somebody has to lose for you to win. When playing parties are countries and law makers it gets serious to make others lose for you to win.

This game is really simple – you (as a country) don’t want your currency to be very strong as costs for domestic businesses will be high compared to other countries and that brings a whole lot of problems – no foreign investors (they will go to China right?) , weak domestic companies, low exports, high unemployment etc. That brings in a lot of discontent and you don’t get elected at the next poll – simple as that. So strong currency is bad, looked at country level. Here comes the printing press – countries print money to debase currency and thus give a hand to business (make domestic costs lower). But who suffers here? The savers. If you hold money in the bank – that’s bad news. Current monetary policy favors borrowing and not saving. That’s why Germans are against running the printing press and Italians and Spaniards are in favor.

I don’t know if a little monetary policy is good here and there but one thing i know for sure that is very bad – when monetary policy substitutes reforms.

Our policy makers have run out of ideas (or don’t want to push them as our world as we know it needs very painful restart of the financial system and that’s bad for ratings) so bad since the start of the crisis that they have substituted all sound (but painful) policies with one thing and that is known under many names: monetary policy, QE or simply money printing. However, that always ends bad. 100%, no exceptions here in human history. If you are a net borrower, you don’t need to worry to much – you can only benefit. If you are net saver, start looking at the time as your worst enemy as money in the bank will eventually end up bad.

That is valid for all major currencies – dollar, yen. euro, etc. US printed three times the money supply for 5 years, Japan has never stopped to print large amounts of money, ECB just announced very ambitious plans for printing. On the other hand, all these parties are stuck in their financial reforms and that can be seen easily – GDP growth is hardly hitting 2%, unemployment stays high (especially youth figures), bureaucracy is high, taxes are high etc. So even though they try to solve all heir problems with the printing press results are not there because printing can help but can’t substitute sound policies.

As a conclusion, remember that history repeats itself. Every non gold backed currency (fiat currency) has failed in human history.No exceptions. Time span is usually 40 years. All world currencies are fiat since Nixon made them such in 1971. It may not be in the next year or two but if it happens in your life span and you are not prepared, 10-20-30 years of your labor may just disappear in a matter of days.